The turn is often where players make the most mistakes in sound poker play in No-Limit Holdem, and most players overlook its importance. On the turn, the players have almost all the information possible, but there is still one more card to come, and a lot of opportunity for tricky play.
Players with a strong hand have a tendency to bet a large amount to elicit folds from players on a draw. It sounds like a good idea, but if you consider the Expected Value of a hand, making a big over-bet in Texas Hold‘em can be a disastrous play.
When is a bet an over bet?
In No-Limit Holdem, players decide how much to bet in relation to the size of the pot. Many times, players will make a pot sized bet, or a half-pot sized bet. Betting more than the current pot is almost never profitable, and is called an over bet. Why is this almost never a profitable bet?
To be profitable in poker, you don't always want your opponents to fold. What you want is to offer them poor odds, but get them to call because they consider it good enough odds. A pot sized bet gives your opponent 2:1 pot odds, and betting any more than this means the only good poker players that will ever call will be those that have you totally dominated and crushed.
When They’ve Already Invested Too Much
The reason that it can work on the turn is implied odds and players feeling pot committed. In other words, that they've invested so much in a hand and that it's worth so much that they'll make slightly unprofitable calls because they feel obligated to see it through. You can often offer your opponent poor odds on the turn and be reasonably sure of a call, boosting your profit.
Properly used over-bets can be profitable. Advanced texas holdem players will on occasion make a sort of anti-bluff where they over bet the pot when they have a monster hand. Because it's so obvious that the player is trying to get people to fold, it's often assumed that the play must be a bluff, a desperate attempt to get a better player to fold because it's not the right odds to call.
When People Feel You Want Them Out of the Hand
They may be inclined to stay in, and your monster hand can win big. If a pot sized bet leaves you with only a few chips, then consider over betting by going all in. Opponents will be more likely to call you because there is no action to follow. In a tournament setting, players will be less likely to invest a large portion of their chips in a hand, because survival becomes so important.
In a cash game, remember that limiting your loses is of equal importance as maximizing your winnings. It's important to not make over betting a habit since it is easy to over use, but in a tournament setting especially, it can be an effective way to push out scared opponents and win you extra pots. Over betting on the turn can be very dangerous, and can also be very profitable. The turn is the most misplayed hand in poker, and you can maximize your value by offering an opponent a very tempting pot that is not in their favor with a well timed over-bet.